FORECASTING GOLD PRICES USING SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD (SES) AND DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD (DES)

  • Hikmah Maharani Iqomatul Haq Universitas Bhayangkara Surabaya
  • M. Mahaputra Hidayat Universitas Bhayangkara Surabaya
  • Rifki Fahrial Zainal Universitas Bhayangkara Surabaya
Keywords: Forecasting, Gold, Gold Prices, Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing

Abstract

The Condition of gold prices that experienced an unstable increase and decrease, causing people who invest with gold suffered losses. To solve these problem, forecasting gold prices is required. Forecasting is an activity of predicting the future using the condition or data in the past. There are so many method that have been used, but in this study using Single Exponential Smoothing and Double Exponential Smoothing Method. Based on the test from forecasting gold prices data 2013-2015 from Antam, the results of the value of Mean Square Error obtained using single exponential smoothing method is 162,5101 at α = 0,5 and at α = 0,9 is 143,9416. While when using double exponential smoothing method at α = 0,5 is 174,67 and at α= 0,9 is 266,33. The lowest error value -62,84 at α =0,1 is obtained by using single exponential smoothing method. So, the single exponential smoothing method is better to forecast gold prices problem.

Published
2017-08-29
Section
Articles