FORECASTING SYSTEM OF LIBRARY BOOKS USING SINGLE SMOOTHING EXPONENTIAL (CASE STUDY BHAYANGKARA SURABAYA UNIVERSITY LIBRARY)

  • Deddy Gita A.P Universitas Bhayangkara Surabaya
  • Rifki Fahrial Zainal Universitas Bhayangkara Surabaya
  • M. Mahaputra Hidayat Universitas Bhayangkara Surabaya
Keywords: Library, single smoothing exponential, alpha, pre-processing, MSE error, RMSE error

Abstract

This research proposes a solution to ease UBHARA library to add their books collection by forecasting the books amount using single smoothing exponential method with MSE error formula and RMSE error. The data which is forecasted starts from year 2012 until 2016 collected from each field, economics, law, politics and social, and engineering. The data will be processed through pre-processing to prepare the forecasted data. In the calculation example, this programme used data start from 2012 until 2015, alpha value = 0,1 and calculated from the 1st month until the 3rd month, and the 4th month data would be forecasted. The result shows the highest data of book loan comes from the Economics field because in each data of book loan the economics data are more dominant. The value of MSE error and RMSE error are shown in those calculations for year 2015. The error value determines whether the forecast results are better or not. The error value for data forecasting newer than 2015 will be shown.

Published
2017-08-29
Section
Articles